It has been awhile but I finally got up the energy to post something. Here is a break down of select UFC 98 fights.
Evans Vs. Machida
This is an interesting fight because the challenger is the favorite against an undefeated champion who holds wins over 3 top ten fighters and is 2-0-1 against people who have held the 205 belt. For some reason people have been counting Evans out since he appeared on the 2 season of TUF. I have been a huge rashad booster since day one, the only fight I have picked him to lose was the draw against Ortiz.
When it comes to striking, they have similar but very different styles. Both are counter punchers who use a lot of movement. However, Machida uses a karate, tag and get out, style where as Evans uses more of a traditional boxing style with a lot of head and upper body movement. Evans is also fast, really fast. The question will be is he fast enough to catch up to Machida who as of yet has been caught out of position once in his UFC career.
Takedowns are a big edge to Rashad. When I rate the takedowns of UFC fighters it goes like this: Most Explosive, GSP. Most tenacious, Koscheck. Smoothest, Evans. When he shoots for a double leg it is like watching a wrestling instructional tape. It is perfect and fluid. He is also one of only 3 people to ever defeat Greg Jones (one of the NCAAs best ever) on the mat, when he was in college. While much has been made of Machida's takedown defense, Evans trains with GSP who has the best takedown defense in the business. Machida should be easy compared to that.
Grappling is more of a question of opinion. Dominant wrestlers tend to negate good bjj players if they get top position. But Rashad has never really fought a guy with solid skills from the bottom (unless you count Brad Imes, he of the back to back gogoplata wins). And the only dominant wrestler Machida has fought was a fading, injured Ortiz ( who came really close to finishing the fight with a triangle surprisingly). In my opinion, if Evans gets top position he will be able to hold Machida there and pepper him with short elbows and hammerfists.
The bottom line here is a question of imposing ones will. If Machida can impose his pitter, pat technical style he will win a decision. If Rashad can use his athleticism and wrestling to dictate the fight, he will win with a strong chance of a finish.
I have been betting on Evans from jump so I am not going to stop now plus I really hate Machida. Evans in a late stoppage.
Hughes vs. Serra
more later if I have time. Should have started earlier.
