UFC 84 Breakdown - Ortiz vs Machida

Machida vs Ortiz

By far the hardest bout to call because there are so many questions surrounding both fighters. Is Machida for real or just untested? Is Tito done as a top fighter?

Striking;

Edge Machida. Machida has a very unorthodox striking game as he is one of the few fighters who uses a Karate based style in MMA. He has used it to his advantage as most fighters have had a hard time figuring it out. Tito has never been a particularly great striker. He lacks power and a natural striking rhythm. He does have a very good cage and throw very tight technical punches. Against Griffin, he managed to throw tight hooks inside of Forrest’s wide swinging punches (a fact that is often over looked) and even hurt him at one point. Remember he has basically spent most of the last 3 years training to beat Chuck Liddell. However, Machida is a natural striker who will be more comfortable on his feet.

Wrestling

Edge Ortiz. Ortiz has very good wrestling and has used it to good effect through out his MMA career. He appears to have slowed down a step due to a nagging knee injury. The question is can he take Machida down? I think he can, even he has to crush him against the fence. Tito is a very strong LHW and will have to use that to his advantage. Machida is not without wrestling skills of his own. He has a sumo background and it will be interesting to see how he uses it against Ortiz.

Jiu Jitsu

Edge Machida. Machida is a BJJ black belt although he does not use his BJJ as often. Much like Anderson or Wandalei Silva, he prefers to stand rather than use his BJJ to submit and opponent. Against Sokoudjou he showed a decent top game prior to winning by arm triangle. Tito how ever hasn’t been caught in a submission since his second fight at UFC 13! That is more than 10 years ago. He has a great base and is hard to sweep. He has not shown much on the ground other that his solid top control game.

Cardio:

Edge Ortiz. Tito has legendary Cardio although it may be beginning to fail him. Tito has always concentrated on his conditioning, training at altitude, and more than once simple out lasted his opponents. Tito has gone 5 round 3 times in his career, something Machida has never done. Tito may be able to push the pace late in the fight although I doubt either fighter will gas in this 3 round fight.

Level of Competition:

Edge Ortiz. Tito has faced Liddel (twice), Couture, Belfort (early Belfort, also known as good Belfort), Frank Shamrock, Ken Shamrock (3 X although only one was a challenge), Evan Tanner, Forrest Griffin and Rashad Evans. Machida only has two really proven fighters on his resume. A BJ Penn (puffed up to 205) and Rich Franklin prior to Frnaklin dropping down to 185 and winning the UFC Middleweight title.

Conclusion:

This is Tito’s fight to lose. He should be able to take Machida down, pin him against the fence and elbow him towards a stoppage or decision. He needs a big win for the last fight of his UFC contract or he will see his stock fade as he joins a new organization. If he can’t take down Machida, expect a boring decision win for Lyoto.