UFC 84 Breakdown- Penn Vs Sherk

UFC 84 breakdown

Penn vs. Sherk
This fight has generated a ton of hype and wildly differing opinions. The Penn fanboys claim that BJ will win by “whatever he wants” while Sherk’s fan claim that BJ has no gas tank and no heart. Lets break this down by skill set and see how they match up.

Striking:
This one is actually fairly even although most people don’t like to admit it. Sherk has a very tight, technical “small man’s” striking game. He punches in flurries and keeps his punches nice, short and always brings his hands right back to a tight cage. Penn’s punching is more fluid and natural but no less effective. His boxing is good enough that no one faults him for relying on it rather than his jiu-jitsu, unlike a Andy Wang or Jorge Gurgel (who I am told are pretty good on the ground but I have never seen it).

The difference is more in the style, BJ fights from a distance while Sherk is an infighter. The advantage will go to who can impose their style on the other. Due to the size of the octagon and his reach advantage, I think that will be Penn.

Wrestling:
This one is pretty clearly in the favour of Sherk. His wrestling is very good and 3 of Penn’s 4 losses have come to strong wrestlers. Penn’s supporter’s claim that it was his gas tank that lost him those fights (or a rib injury in the case of Hughes II). But the fact remains that he has lost to wrestlers in the past. Sherk bases his style around his takedowns and ground and pound. He will likely attempt to take Penn down early and often. BJ has shown some very good takedown defence in the past and Sherk will be hard pressed to take him down early but over time, Sherk’s aggressiveness and persistence will be rewarded with takedowns.

Jiu-Jitsu:
As clearly as the wrestling goes to Sherk, the BJJ has to go to Penn. He is easily one of the most talent BJJ fighters in MMA. A lot of people think he could be competitive in Abu Dhabi right now. He is that good. But Sherk has fought some very good BJJ fighters in the past and he has never been submitted in 35 fights. All three of his last opponents are BJJ black belts, (Diaz was a brown at the time) and well known for having good “BJJ for MMA” which is not always the case with BJJ black belts. Neither Florian or Franca, could use that BJJ at all against Sherk; in fact, Sherk passed Franca’s guard like Franca was a white belt. Diaz was more of a challenge and also the most similar in his BJJ to Penn. Diaz is a slick, natural grappler somewhat like Penn and was competitive but ultimately overwhelmed by Sherk’s non-stop pace. The question is not so much who is better, it is clearly Penn, but how BJ handles Sherk’s pace.

Cardio:
By far the easiest aspect to call, both fighters are legendary in respect to cardio. Sherk is known for ability to compete at top speed for 25 minutes. Penn is legendary for is ability to gas after 10 minutes. Questions still remain though. Was Sherk’s cardio a result of steroids? Does Penn have a new found respect for conditioning? I got go with the historical precedent and give the advantage to Sherk by a landslide.

Level of Competition:
I have to call this a draw. Both guys are champions. Both have been in big fights. BJ has fought: GSP, Hughes, Gomi, Machida, Renzo Gracie, Pulver and Serra. Sherk has fought GSP, Hughes, Diaz and Parisyan. Both have had mixed success against top competition but most of it was outside their natural weight class of 155.

Conclusion:
Very even bout on paper. In each area that one person has an advantage; the other has a proven track record of nullifying that advantage. Penn does not want to let this get into the later rounds. Even if he has concentrated on his cardio to a level he never has before, Sherk is a monster in that department and will push the pace for 25 minutes. BJ has to use his reach and takedown defence to punish Sherk early make his hesitant to shoot for a takedown (no easy task as Hermes Franca can attest to). I picture BJ winning the early rounds but Sherk will come on strong late and grind out a hotly disputed decision.